ABSTRACT

Many conflicts are enabled by environmental instability . This has been especially problematical in sub-Saharan Africa where non-sustainable practices and environmental change have combined with the proliferation of failing governments, enabling longstanding ethnic and religious antagonisms to erupt into violent conflicts . History has demonstrated that environmental stress can result in conflict, frequently along ethnic lines . Thus, the concept of environmental security has emerged as one basis for understanding conflict . To that end, this paper examines the nexus between the environment and conflict and demonstrates the need for careful environmental analysis by presenting a model illustrating the relationship between natural resources and political stability in Sub-Saharan Africa . The results suggest that a statistically significant relationship exists between arable land and access to fresh water, and political stability and non-violence . Key Words: ethnic conflict, environmental security, military geography, resource scarcity, Rwanda

文摘

許多衝突是由環境不穩定造成的。在撒哈拉以南的非洲，這種情況尤其成問題，因為在這些地區，不可持續的做法和環境變化與失敗政府的擴散相結合，使長期存在的種族和宗教敵對情緒爆發為暴力衝突。歷史證明，環境壓力可能會導致衝突，往往是種族衝突。因此，環境安全的概念已成為理解衝突的一個基礎。為此，本文研究了環境與衝突之間的關係，並通過提出一種說明撒哈拉以南非洲的自然資源與政治穩定之間關係的模型，論證了謹慎的環境分析的必要性。研究結果表明，耕地與獲得淡水、政治穩定和非暴力之間存在著統計上顯著的關係。

關鍵詞:民族衝突，環境安全，軍事地理，資源稀缺，盧安達。

檔案連結：

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256362008_Modeling_Environmental_Security_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa