本文為迦納恩克魯瑪科技大學（作者：COSMOS AGBE KWAME TODOKO）的碩士論文，共78頁。

水被認為是所有生物特別是人類的生命線，因此水資源的可用性是通過人類發展指數（HDI）衡量人類福祉的關鍵組成部分。水資源在迦納的生產和分銷，特別是在伏爾塔地區的霍霍埃市，是一個挑戰。本研究旨在找出最適合霍霍埃市用水量資料的時間序列模型，並對霍霍埃市用水量進行預測。以時間序列模型為基礎，該模型用於預測該市居民、機構和企業的用水水平。針對用水資料擬合了AR、MA、ARMA、ARIMA和SARIMA等時間序列模型，我們發現最合適的模型是ARIMA（2，1，2）。根據本文的研究預測，未來4年，全市水資源消費水平將不會有明顯的上升，建議迦納水務有限公司在其經營和規劃活動中使用本文研究模型及其預測數字。

Water is considered as lifeline of allliving things especially humans, hence its availability is a critical componentin the measurement of human wellbeing through the Human Development Index(HDI). Its production and distribution inGhanaparticularly in the Hohoe Municipality of the VoltaRegion is a challenge. This study seeks to identify the best fit time seriesmodel to the water consumption data in the Hohoe Municipalityand to forecast water consumption in the Municipality. This underpins thedevelopment of a time series model for forecasting water consumption levels ofthe residents, institutions and businesses in the municipality. Several timeseries models including AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA were fitted to the data,and it emerged that the most adequate model for the data was ARIMA (2, 1, 2).There will be no astronomical increases in water consumption levels in themunicipality over the next 4 years. It is recommended that the Ghana WaterCompany Limited should use the model and its forecasted figures in itsoperational and planning activities.

1 引言
2 歷史文獻回顧
3 研究方法
4 資料採集、分析與結果
5 結論與建議

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