Why is Google still building smartphones?

Google still has the tiniest slice of the global smartphone market. I mean, it’s not Windows Phone bad, which before Microsoft pulled the plug was at around 0.1 of the market, but a reported 0.7 % isn’t good, either.

“In smartphones, Google keeps making basic mistakes in hardware selection like with its LG displays with

the red haze and isn’t adding premium features like wireless charging, 4x4 MIMO antennas or multi-camera arrays. If that continues, it will have issues breaking into any high-volume premium markets,” Patrick Moorhead, President & Principal Analyst Moor Insights & Strategy” wrote to me in an email when I asked him why Google stays in the smartphone game.

I don’t see many Pixel 2 or 2 XL’s in the wild, but they’re pretty popular on TV where Google (like other tech companies) pays for product placement. I know that Chrissy Teigen and her husband John Legend are (paid)fans. Still, consumers aren’t flocking to the well-made, squeezable phones.

And yet here we are, on the precipice of another major Pixel launch, one of the

worst-kept product secrets in recent tech history. Not only were there leaks a plenty, but one over-eager Hong Kong retailer started selling the Pixel 3 XL in advance. So, we know about the dual front cameras, notched 6.3-inch screen, single 12 MP camera on the back, and much, much more.

Based on what the rumors tell us about the specs and design, these will be Google’s best smartphones ever, though that by itself does not guarantee success.

To win in the smartphone game you have to have the ineffable something. Is it sex-appeal? Maybe. Apple’s iPhone have always had it. Samsung’s Galaxy line grew into it.

Google’s industrial design choices haven’t set the world on fire and, with the Pixel 3, it’s sticking with the two-tone back design that’s both distinctive and uninspired. On the other hand, Google’s following the larger trend of button-free faces and shrinking bezels. It’s hard to go wrong with giant, high-resolution OLED displays, even if you put a notch in them. Plus, which other phones let you literally squeeze them to access their voice assistants? I wouldn’t call that feature choice sexy, but it is unique.

It’s also a reminder that while Google Assistant and a wide array of Google’s home-grown software (Chrome, Calendar, Maps, Gmail) live on other Android phones, they have no more natural home than the Pixel line. On these handsets, there’s no competing for attention with, for instance, Samsung’s own assistant, Bixby, its custom browser or email apps. Google Pixel and Pixel XL are the fullest realization of Google’s software suite ideal.

Also telling is that Google calls its event “Made by Google,” a label that embraces not only the headliner Pixel 3 phones but puts all the other hardware Google will announce on Tuesday on equal footing with the handsets. This may or may not be a good thing. Google has a habit of announcing too many products at once. It reminds me of the classic Warner Brother’s cartoon where Bugs Bunny pitches a super-slow ball. A line of batters swing and swing helplessly at the comically weaving baseball, but they never make contact.

Google’s batting percentage is better than that, but its approach to product announcement can be a bit much. Last year, in addition to the Pixel phones Google introduced a new Chromecast, the insta-translating Pixel Buds, the big Google Home Max, the tiny, colorful Google Home Mini, the always-watching Google Clips camera, and productivity-minded Google Pixel Book. There’s every indication that we’ll see just as many new Made by Google products on Tuesday.

Apple and even Samsung have learned to narrow the focus in such events to a few products. Of course, that hasn’t always worked in their favor. Apple’s unwillingness to throw in a HomePod Mini (a tiny cheap sibling for its expensive HomePod) during one of its major product events has left it trailing way behind not only market-leader Amazon, but Google, which started with the more affordable Google Home and quickly built up to the monster Home Max.

Still, the Pixel 3 and 3 XL could easily get lost amid all the hubbub of these other gadgets. We could have a replay of last year where a secondary gadget like the Pixel Buds is the most talked about product announcement. Not only were we excited by the Pixel Bud’s real-time translation capabilities, but no one saw them coming. So, naturally, they were a highlight. Subsequent reviews of the product wouldn’t be as enthusiastic.

If Google is paying attention, I’m sure it noticed Microsoft’s recent Surface event where the highlight was the $349 noise-cancelling Surface Headphones. Microsoft was pleased that they managed to keep one secret before the product event, but I wonder if there were any lingering concerns over how the headset stole the spotlight from the new Surface Pro 6, Surface Laptop 2, and Surface Studio 2. If anyone’s asking me (they’re not), I think four products in an event is the absolute max. Three is a sweet spot.

But let’s imagine for a moment, that Google manages to keep the spotlight on its new handsets. Is there anything here that significantly alters Google Pixel’s market trajectory?

I don’t see Google beating its competitors by a significant margin on price. If it’s using Qualcomm’s off-the-shelf Snapdragon 845 CPU, it won’t beat Samsung or Apple on Performance. They might up the water and dust protection to IP 68 for parity with the iPhone Xs. I expect excellent camera technology backed by excellent algorithms that allow for portrait mode photos with a single 12 MP camera. Maybe Google will surprise us with another quirky feature like squeeze.

We already know that, if we own a Google Pixel 2 or Pixel 2 XL, we can store all our full-resolution photos for free in Google Photos (up to 15 GB, then it’s high-resolution storage). It is, in my opinion, the single biggest reason to buy a Pixel and wrap yourself up in the Google ecosystem. Whatever brand smartphone you own, you spend at least half your time taking photos with it. Cloud-storage anxiety is a real thing. I spend more and more each month on cloud storage and worry constantly about what would happen if I stopped paying. Where would I store my backups? Where would my photos go? Sometimes I think I’d pay almost anything for a device that would give me cloud piece of mind.

Without a new and innovative feature to set the Pixel phones apart from the competition, Google may want to double-down on the Photo feature offering. Since we already know virtually everything about the phones, Google could paint a terrifying picture of what could happen to your photos if you don’t have free, automatic, full-resolution backup.

If nothing else, people will walk away remembering why they want a Google Pixel 3 phone.

I could be misconstruing Google’s smartphone strategy. Perhaps it’s not about market share. Moorhead reminded me that the Pixel line is not only a premium offering for developers and the tens of thousands of Google employees, it’s “a hedge against Samsung, LG, or Motorola doing something odd with its Google apps or even sitting on its hands with OS upgrades.”