基於僱員流失率資料進行多分類模型訓練及閾值調整實踐-大資料ML樣本集案例實戰

摘要： 版權宣告：本套技術專欄是作者（秦凱新）平時工作的總結和昇華，通過從真實商業環境抽取案例進行總結和分享，並給出商業應用的調優建議和叢集環境容量規劃等內容，請持續關注本套部落格。QQ郵箱地址：[email protected]，如有任何學術交流，可隨時聯絡。 1 資料的預處理分析 from...

版權宣告：本套技術專欄是作者（秦凱新）平時工作的總結和昇華，通過從真實商業環境抽取案例進行總結和分享，並給出商業應用的調優建議和叢集環境容量規劃等內容，請持續關注本套部落格。QQ郵箱地址：[email protected]，如有任何學術交流，可隨時聯絡。

1 資料的預處理分析

from __future__ import division
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

churn_df = pd.read_csv('churn.csv')
col_names = churn_df.columns.tolist()

print "Column names:"
print col_names

#前六個後六個
to_show = col_names[:6] + col_names[-6:]

print "\nSample data:"
churn_df[to_show].head(6)
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2 資料標準化處理

churn_result = churn_df['Churn?']
y = np.where(churn_result == 'True.',1,0)

# We don't need these columns
to_drop = ['State','Area Code','Phone','Churn?']
churn_feat_space = churn_df.drop(to_drop,axis=1)

# 'yes'/'no' has to be converted to boolean values
# NumPy converts these from boolean to 1. and 0. later
yes_no_cols = ["Int'l Plan","VMail Plan"]
churn_feat_space[yes_no_cols] = churn_feat_space[yes_no_cols] == 'yes'

# Pull out features for future use
features = churn_feat_space.columns

X = churn_feat_space.as_matrix().astype(np.float)

# This is important
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
scaler = StandardScaler()
X = scaler.fit_transform(X)

print "Feature space holds %d observations and %d features" % X.shape
print "Unique target labels:", np.unique(y)
print X[0]
print len(y[y == 0])

Feature space holds 3333 observations and 17 features
Unique target labels: [0 1]
[ 0.67648946 -0.327580481.61708611.234882741.566766950.47664315
1.56703625 -0.07060962 -0.05594035 -0.070426650.86674322 -0.46549436
0.86602851 -0.08500823 -0.60119509 -0.0856905-0.42793202]
2850
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3 sklearn多模型封裝（已廢棄，學思想）

from sklearn.cross_validation import KFold

def run_cv(X,y,clf_class,**kwargs):
# Construct a kfolds object
kf = KFold(len(y),n_folds=5,shuffle=True)
y_pred = y.copy()

# Iterate through folds
for train_index, test_index in kf:
X_train, X_test = X[train_index], X[test_index]
y_train = y[train_index]
# Initialize a classifier with key word arguments
clf = clf_class(**kwargs)
clf.fit(X_train,y_train)
y_pred[test_index] = clf.predict(X_test)
return y_pred

from sklearn.svm import SVC
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier as RF
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier as KNN

def accuracy(y_true,y_pred):
# NumPy interprets True and False as 1. and 0.
return np.mean(y_true == y_pred)

print "Support vector machines:"
print "%.3f" % accuracy(y, run_cv(X,y,SVC))
print "Random forest:"
print "%.3f" % accuracy(y, run_cv(X,y,RF))
print "K-nearest-neighbors:"
print "%.3f" % accuracy(y, run_cv(X,y,KNN))

Support vector machines:
0.916
Random forest:
0.944
K-nearest-neighbors:
0.893
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4 閾值概率調整

def run_prob_cv(X, y, clf_class, **kwargs):
kf = KFold(len(y), n_folds=5, shuffle=True)
y_prob = np.zeros((len(y),2))
for train_index, test_index in kf:
X_train, X_test = X[train_index], X[test_index]
y_train = y[train_index]
clf = clf_class(**kwargs)
clf.fit(X_train,y_train)
# Predict probabilities, not classes
y_prob[test_index] = clf.predict_proba(X_test)
return y_prob

import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')

# Use 10 estimators so predictions are all multiples of 0.1
pred_prob = run_prob_cv(X, y, RF, n_estimators=10)
#print pred_prob[0]
pred_churn = pred_prob[:,1]
is_churn = y == 1

# Number of times a predicted probability is assigned to an observation
counts = pd.value_counts(pred_churn)
#print counts

# calculate true probabilities
true_prob = {}
for prob in counts.index:
true_prob[prob] = np.mean(is_churn[pred_churn == prob])
true_prob = pd.Series(true_prob)

# pandas-fu
counts = pd.concat([counts,true_prob], axis=1).reset_index()
counts.columns = ['pred_prob', 'count', 'true_prob']
counts

# 0.7以上流式率達到94%，說明閾值為0.7是合適的，低於0.7不管，高於0.7的都認為是流失的
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