中國總理溫家寶爺爺是一位幹實事的爺爺。在3月5日的中國全國人民代表大會的演講中，他回顧了過去一年的政府工作，提出了今年的優先任務和將在這次大會上通過的新的五年規劃。與負責任的監護人一樣，溫爺爺照顧到了其監護之人的生活的方方面面。

China‘s economic blueprint Take five

中國經濟增長目標略降

The prime minister lays down how China’s economy is to look in 2015

總理為2015年的中國經濟狀況定調。

“GRANDPA WEN”, China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, is a hands-on patriarch. In his annual speech to China’s National People’s Congress on March 5th he reflected on the government’s work over the past year, its priorities for this year, and its new five-year plan, which the congress must ratify. Like a good guardian, Grandpa Wen neglected no aspect of his wards’lives.

中國總理溫家寶爺爺是一位幹實事的爺爺。在3月5日的中國全國人民代表大會的演講中，他回顧了過去一年的政府工作，提出了今年的優先任務和將在這次大會上通過的新的五年規劃。與負責任的監護人一樣，溫爺爺照顧到了其監護之人的生活的方方面面。

On top of the stern duties of safeguarding price stability and national security, Mr Wen promised to enhance national creativity, enrich philosophy, arouse an innovative spirit, resolutely oppose extravagance—and ensure one hour of physical exercise in schools every day.

除了保持物價穩定和維護國家安全的當務之急外，溫總理承諾將提高國家的創造性，豐富哲學，激發創新精神，杜絕浪費並且確保學校每天安排一個小時的體育鍛煉。

The aim of all this enhancing and arousing is, by the end of the decade, to turn China into a xiaokang society. The term traces back to the Confucian “Book of Songs”, and suggests a moderately prosperous society that can begin to enjoy the fruits of its labours.

所有這些提高和激發的目標是，到這個十年底，使中國成為小康社會。小康一詞出自孔子的《詩經》，是小康社會開始享受其勞動成果的意思。

To help China on its way, Mr Wen set a target for economic growth of 7% a year for 2011-15. The figure should not be taken too literally. A target of 7.5% for the past five years did not stop China growing by more than 11% over that period. Still, the target is lower than it was in the previous plan, suggesting that the pattern of growth now matters as much as the speed.

為了使中國成為小康社會，中國為2011年-2015年設立了7%的平均經濟增長率。不應過分看重這一數字。過去五年的目標為7.5%，但同期中國的實際增長率卻超過11%。此外，設定的目標低於上次規劃的目標表明增長的模式和速度同樣重要。

Indeed, Mr Wen said the country’s development is neither balanced, co-ordinated nor sustainable. It relies too heavily on investment and on swallowing natural resources and too little on consumer spending. The income generated is unevenly divided: between profits and wages, rich households and poor, coastal provinces and inland regions, the cities and the countryside.

實際上，溫家寶表示中國的發展不平衡，不協調並且是不可持續的。它過於依賴投資和自然資源的消耗，對消費支出的依賴不夠。收入分配不均：利潤和工資之間、富裕家庭和窮人之間、沿海省份和內陸地區之間、城鄉之間。

The prime minister also admitted that China had failed to meet at least three targets he set in the previous five-year plan. Two related to China’s service industries, which last year accounted for 43% of its GDP and 35% of its employment. Countries at China’s stage of development typically have service sectors approaching three-fifths of GDP.

總理還承認，在上一個五年規劃中，中國至少有三個目標沒有實現。其中兩個與中國的服務業有關，去年服務業占到了國內生產總值的43%，創造了35%的就業崗位。處於中國這樣發展水平的國家的服務業應該接近國內生產總值的五分之三。

Most of China’s more lucrative services markets, such as for telecoms, are dominated by stateowned enterprises (SOEs). The “investment hunger” of the SOEs, which borrow cheaply from state banks as well as recycle outsized profits, is a chief cause of China’s unbalanced development. Mr Wen promised to implement no fewer than 36 guidelines for opening the “glass doors” preventing private investment in many fields not explicitly reserved for the state. Such fields include transport, power and municipal utilities.

Regrettably, in the year ahead these liberalisations may be offset by efforts to stop the economy from overheating. The government is trying to contain inflation by squeezing credit. And although it urges banks to keep lending to smaller companies, lenders are sure to turn private borrowers away before disappointing state-owned ones. If necessary, Mr Wen says, the government will also control prices by “administrative means”.

Liberal-minded types will take some comfort from Mr Wen’s promise to “press ahead” with making the yuan convertible for capital-account transactions, a commitment missing from his previous two reports. He also promised to push forward with the “market-based reform” of interest rates. The hope is that freer rates would better reward household savers, discourage excessive investment and possibly allow private borrowers to get loans from state banks by offering to pay higher rates. But Chinese leaders have often before promised to liberalise rates.

大多數中國利潤較豐厚的服務市場，如電信業都是由國有企業主導的。國有企業的“投資欲望”是中國發展不平衡的重要原因之一，它能從國有銀行獲得廉價的貸款並獲取巨額利潤。溫家寶承諾將至少實行36項指導方針打開“玻璃門”，這些玻璃門在眾多不是明確為國家控制的領域阻礙了私人投資。其中包括交通、電力和市政公共設施。

China’s idiosyncratic pattern of development is never easy to categorise. To some it represents a new model of state capitalism: “a Beijing consensus” to rival the “Washington consensus” first identified by John Williamson of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

令人遺憾的是，今年這些自由化的措施可能會被阻止經濟過熱的努力抵消。政府正試圖通過減少信貸遏制通脹。此外，盡管政府督促各銀行繼續為較小企業提供貸款，但是銀行必定會在令國有企業失望之前回絕私人借貸者。溫家寶表示，如有必要，政府還將采取行政手段控制價格。自由思想者將從溫家寶“推進”人民幣在資本賬戶交易中自由兌換的承諾中獲得一些安慰，在其前兩份報告中都沒有作出這項承諾。他還承諾推進“以市場為基礎的利率改革”。更加自由的利率可能會讓家庭儲戶獲得更好的回報，抑制過多投資並可能讓私人借貸者通過支付更高的利率從國有銀行獲得貸款。但是中國此前也常常承諾讓利率自由浮動。

Others think China is moving closer to the Washington model. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics, a consultancy, argues that it has made solid progress on eight of Mr Williamson’s ten commandments, including fiscal discipline and an openness to foreign trade and direct investment. To follow through on its promise to liberalise interest rates would make a welcome ninth.

中國與眾不同的發展模式從來都不易歸類。在一些人看來，它是一種新的國家資本主義模式：“北京共識”，與彼得森國際經濟研究所的約翰·威廉姆森首次提出的“華盛頓共識”相對。還有人認為中國正一步步接近華盛頓模式。龍洲經訊咨詢公司的葛藝豪稱，在威廉姆森設立的十戒中，有八戒，中國取得了穩步的進展，包括財政紀律和向國外貿易和直接投資開放。兌現其讓利率自由浮動的承諾將成為取得進展的第九戒，這是受人歡迎的。

總理為2015年的中國經濟狀況定調