開發者談產品開發本質上就是在有限中帶著鐐銬跳舞
開發者談產品開發本質上就是在有限中帶著鐐銬跳舞
原作者：Jake Birkett 譯者：Willow Wu
我剛剛從波士頓回來，在那裡和幾位獨立開發者、Valve公司人員一起參加圓桌會議，話題主要圍繞著如何才能做出有銷路的遊戲。
我想對這一話題做一個自我總結，儘管現在人們能夠輕鬆獲取到各種資訊，我還是能看到不少獨立開發者（初出茅廬和經驗豐富的都有）一直在犯同樣的錯誤。
和往常一樣，我的文章針對的是正在經營工作室，或者正在考慮創業的人。我是一個全職的獨立開發者，我會寫出我所知道的東西。
1.你想做的遊戲
我們喜歡遊戲，想做遊戲，這就是我們加入這個行業的的原因，對吧？有人把它當成愛好，另外一些人想轉成兼職或者是全職工作。
我有一份記錄遊戲點子的Google doc檔案，足足有27頁長。我甚至都沒有坐下來認真思考過這些點子，它們只是在某個時刻蹦出來的想法。每頁大概有5個遊戲，所以這裡頭大概有150個遊戲點子。如果有準備的話，我也許可以在一天內再想出另外100個。
想法不是問題，如何制定一個可行的方案才是挑戰，也就是上面韋恩圖所展示的那樣。
Games with a market（from gamasutra.com）
2.你能做的遊戲
除非你是個不愁錢、不愁時間的天才，不然你可能會遇到以下這些限制：
-你的技術能力限制
-預算限制
-時間限制
這些限制應該能讓你認識到做一個3A級別的MMO遊戲是不可行的——不僅是這個方案，還有其它很多也是不可行的。
這就是為什麼我堅持做2D遊戲，它們的開發週期短（大部分），成本也在所能承受的範圍內。
另外一點就是其實很多人都高估了他們的能力、低估了做遊戲所要耗費的時間，於是你就有大麻煩了。
所以你要非常清楚地認識到你的現實條件，設定一個切實的目標，然後穩妥行事。
3.考慮遊戲市場
這是一個既簡單又複雜的話題。
考慮到銷量，首先你得確保遊戲的受眾範圍足夠大，並且你能爭取到這些人。（通過營銷、社群、病毒式傳播等等，這是另一個話題了。）
如果你選的是一個已經飽和的市場，潛在使用者基數肯定是很大，但是你很難從眾多產品中脫穎而出，除非：1.你的遊戲非常特別 2.你的遊戲能夠成為該市場的經典產品之一。
反過來說，如果你選了一個的非常小眾市場，你可能掙不到足夠的錢來維持生計。
還有就是除非你的廣告預算非常多，或者是得到大型平臺商店的推廣、又或者是你有其它有效的營銷方式，不然你只能爭取到市場的其中一小部分使用者。這就是為什麼你在計算預計銷售時不能參考市場的異常值。
總而言之，做好調查工作。你可以使用SteamSpy、看看別人的分析文章、跟獨立開發者們交流心得、研究市場，訓練你的敏感度，要能知道什麼樣的遊戲是可以大賣的（要有具體的資料支援）。我一直都在這麼做的，因為遊戲市場從來就不是一成不變的。
如果你開發遊戲主要是因為愛好，或者是你不一定要依靠遊戲掙錢，事情就會簡單很多，你可以直接移除韋恩圖上的這個圈。但是你可能還是想要為自己的遊戲爭取一些使用者，具體得看你做遊戲的動機了。
4.進行資料/風險分析
算一算你的遊戲開發時間要多久，成本包括什麼，以及你的遊戲點子投入市場實際能帶來多少收益。你能達到收支平衡嗎？或者……盈利？
如何減輕你的成本負擔？有人給你投資嗎？
要是你沒能在預定的時間內做完遊戲或者是超出了預算怎麼辦？
要是你無法做到收支平衡怎麼辦？
結論
這篇文章旨在給所有現任獨立開發者和想要成為獨立開發者的人做個提醒，而不是深入分析每個話題。當然，需要考慮的因素不止這些，要取決於你的個人情況。
也請切記，即使選擇了理論上最適合你的遊戲，任何人都無法保證這個遊戲一定會成功。
但是，我可以肯定，從上面的維恩圖入手就是一個很好的開始，它可以引導你走上正確的軌道。祝你好運！
本文由遊戲邦編譯，轉載請註明來源，或諮詢微信zhengjintiao
I just got back from a trip to Boston where I took part in several roundtable discussions with indies and Valve that were mostly about how to make games that have a chance of selling OK and related topics.
I wanted to summarize my thinking on this topic because despite the wealth of information out there I still see many indies (new and experienced) needlessly making the same mistakes.
As per usual, my blog post is assuming that you are running a business, or are thinking of doing so. I’m a full-time indie and so I write about what I know.
Games you want to make
This is why we all got into making games right? We love games, and we want to make games. Some of us keep it as a hobby and some of want to turn it into a part-time or full-time business.
I have a Google doc of game ideas that is 27 pages long. These aren’t even ideas I have sat down to think about, they are just random ideas that spawned over time. Each page has approx. 5 games on it. So it’s approaching 150 game ideas. I could probably think about another 100 in a day if I set my mind to it.
Ideas are not a problem. Filtering them to something viable is the challenge, and that’s where the Venn diagram above comes in.
Games you can make
Unless you are a genius with an infinite pool of money and time you probably have some constraints such as:
- Your technical capabilities
- Your budget
- Your time
These constraints should help you realise that making a AAA-quality MMO is not viable, and nor are a bunch of other things.
This is why I stick to 2D games with a short development cycle (mostly) that don’t cost too much too make. Watch my talk on this topic.
Add to that the fact that many people over-estimate their capabilities and under-estimate how long making a game will take, and you run into big problems.
So make sure you are very clear about what you can realistically achieve and err on the side of caution.
Games with a market
This is simple topic and also a complex topic 
Basically you must make sure your game has an audience that is big enough to generate the sales you need and that you can reach them (via marketing, community, virality etc. but that’s a whole other topic.)
However, if you choose an oversaturated market, the audience may be huge, but it will be very hard to stand out in that market unless you make a) a game with something special about it and b) one of the best examples of games in that market.
Conversely if you choose a niche market that is too small, you may not make enough sales to survive.
Also remember that unless you have a huge advertising budget, or get some kind of mega store featuring, or your marketing excels in some other way, that you will only reach a fraction of that market anyway. This is why you cannot base your projected sales on outliers in a market.
Anyway, do your research. Use SteamSpy, read postmortems, talk to indies, study the market until you have a good “feel” for what sort of games sell backed up by hard numbers. I do this all the time because it’s a constantly shifting landscape.
If you are a hobbyist dev or you don’t need to make money from your games, this greatly simplifies things and you can leave out this entire circle on the Venn diagram. Though you may still want to reach an audience for your game, depending on your motivation for making it.
Do the Math/Risk Analysis
Work out how long your game will take to make, what it’ll cost, and what sort of revenue your chosen game idea could realistically make in its market. Will you be able to breakeven or even, gasp, make a profit?
Can you get some funding to reduce your personal costs?
What happens if it takes too long or you run out of budget?
What happens if you don’t breakeven?
Conclusion
This blog post is intended to be a reminder for all current and potential indies rather than a deep dive into each topic. Also there are of course other considerations to take into account and those will alter depending on your personal circumstances.
Also please bear in mind that even if you select what is in theory the right game for you, there are absolutely no guarantees it will be a success.
However, I’m pretty sure that the above diagram is a good starting point in order to nudge you in the right direction. Good luck!（source: ofollow,noindex" target="_blank">gamasutra.com ）